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Each time the wind gusts northwest from Belarus, Lithuania braces for disruptions.

That is when giant white balloons are dispatched across the border, with containers of contraband goods swinging beneath.

Over the recent period, this illicit balloon traffic has forced Lithuania's main airport into suspension 15 times, delaying thousands of travellers.

On a single instance, the airspace was shut down entirely for a prolonged 11 hours.

However, the authorities are adamant they are dealing with something considerably more sinister than simple smugglers.

They state the balloons have been turned into tools of disruption in an manifestation of covert aggression by Belarus, an ally of the Kremlin.

Government Action

The Lithuanian government has instituted an state of emergency.

While balloons have been used by smugglers previously, their numbers escalated rapidly this October.

"Naturally it began as organised crime activity, but we've seen repeatedly how Belarus uses organised crime to impact adjacent states," a government minister stated.

The official noted the balloons are launched from locations that help them best aim at Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If you want to make a contraband run, you'd do it in the forests or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister pointed out.

Instead, there is a belief that the balloons represent a form of political blackmail on Europe's border region.

"They see this as leverage: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really entering the realm of national security."

Nocturnal Operations

Now, nightly, military police head out in the border zone.

The balloons are most common during the night.

Units establish mobile checkpoints on remote country roads, inspecting drivers' documents and examining vehicles looking for anyone connected to the smuggling networks.

The balloons travel too high up to make intercepting them with firearms a safe or economic option.

Consequently, the government has offered a €1m prize to any firm that can figure out how to safely stop them.

In the meantime, teams use military radar to track the balloons and attempt to catch smugglers at the drop zones.

Soon, new criminal charges for aviation disruption should also serve as a deterrent.

Political Objectives

The frontier line is now marked by a tall metal fence, with security wire and fortifications.

This extra security is a clear sign of how Lithuania now perceives its neighbour as hostile.

Not far away, the long-time ruler of Belarus has rejected all talk of hybrid warfare as "baseless".

He recently blamed "bandit" smugglers, saying they were simply seeking a profit and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania is skeptical, partly due to previous incidents.

In 2021, migrants were facilitated to cross into Lithuania and Poland in significant quantities, creating a manufactured emergency.

"The current pattern involves a series of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, precisely targeted at the airport," explained a security official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it tomorrow. But they don't. That suggests it benefits them."

The suspicion is that Belarus is trying to bully its way into reducing international restrictions.

"They want to attract political attention and compel us to change our policies towards Belarus," is how one minister interprets the dramatic increase of balloons.

The EU has not recognized the Belarusian leader as president following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent crackdown.

Sanctions were levied then and tightened later when Belarus assisted Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the diplomatic ostracism of the regime and secondly, of course, the sanctions," the minister argued.

Consequences for Travel

For now, travellers and airlines face disruptions.

"This is something completely new for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already relocated its charter flights, and another has reduced its evening service.

Revenue losses for all affected businesses are projected to reach €2m by year's end.

"One thing is the extra cost, but the greater concern is if passengers start to lose trust in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers check a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.

"It's not easy, it makes me a little bit nervous. I'd just like to get home as planned," one passenger said.

"I am convinced this is a form of aggression on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really amusing to fly those balloons and then mock us."

Her words suggest that another aim of such hybrid activity – creating division – is also having an effect, and perhaps harder to defend against.

"They're basically testing the limits of the alliance: looking at how we respond to these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even fight simple balloons. We're not even equipped for the fundamental challenges."