Beyond the Pomp of Putin's New Delhi Trip: An Indo-Russian Relationship Which Has Frayed.
This rhetoric and imagery from the Russian leader Vladimir Putin's most recent visit to India spoke of a robust two-way partnership. Indian PM Narendra Modi greeted Putin at the airport with a hug, and the leaders took a car journey, mirroring a known diplomatic gesture. In his remarks, Modi referred to Putin as "a dear friend" and described the India-Russia bond as a "beacon", founded on "shared respect and deep trust" that had "weathered the test of time". This was Putin's 10th trip to India over his quarter-century tenure and his 20th encounter with Modi since the latter took office in 2014.
A Chasm Separating Symbolism and Substance
However, a noticeable gap exists between the symbolism and the substance of this alliance. Although Putin vowed "uninterrupted fuel supplies" to India, the country's refiners are actually purchasing less Russian oil in the face of external tariffs and sanctions. The two countries signed a series of memorandums of understanding covering mobility, health, agriculture, maritime cooperation, and educational collaboration. However, anticipated announcements on major military contracts did not materialize. India has not concluded any substantial defence purchases with Russia following the 2022's offensive of Ukraine, a situation driven by delays in shipments of platforms and components as Moscow focuses on its own wartime needs.
A Relationship Losing Strategic Influence
These developments points to that the Indo-Russian relationship no longer holds the identical strategic heft it once possessed. In the era of superpower rivalry, India enjoyed preferential trade terms and market access to the Soviet Union and its satellite states. This unique relationship peaked in 1971 with a Pact of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, signed ahead of a war with Pakistan where Islamabad was backed by the US and China. Although both countries have attempted to preserve a appearance of this close tie through a "unique and elevated" alliance declared in 2010, the reality is that their engagement does not have the same importance as New Delhi has substantially strengthened relations with the Western world.
Broadening and Underlying Contradictions
New Delhi is unlikely to cut its crucial relationship with Moscow. But, as external coercion mounts on India to curtail its purchases of Russian oil, both countries are attempting to diversify the relationship into other sectors. During Putin's trip, they unveiled an economic cooperation program extending until 2030, designed to make their relations "broader, equitable and long-lasting". This involves enhancing market access for Indian goods to address a trade deficit heavily skewed in Russia's favor. Collaboration between the two spans several strategically important sectors – from space and nuclear energy to defence and food security.
Sentimental Bonds and Seen Dependability
At an sentimental plane, a significant amount of affinity with Russia persists, particularly among senior generations of officials in New Delhi who recall Moscow's crucial support during the earlier era. This has translated into a degree of understanding for the Russian viewpoint on the Ukraine war. Amid recent frictions between India and the US, in which American officials have made sharp comments about the Indian economy, many in India view Russia as a increasingly dependable partner.
This challenge, of course, is the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The comprehensive joint statement issued during Putin's India trip contained no reference to Ukraine, despite it paradoxically described the relationship as an "pillar of global peace and stability". In spite of Modi's much-touted assertion that "this is not the era of war", New Delhi's overt actions regarding the conflict have been minimal.
Squaring the Circle: India's Global Tightrope
This dynamic does not belie the underlying complexities in India's international stance. The country is set to finalize a free trade agreement with the EU, after a similar agreement with the UK earlier year. On the sidelines, India, Australia, and Canada announced a trilateral technology partnership. There are far more Indian students in the US than in Russia, even as moves are being made to strengthen cultural contacts between India and Russia.
How can India resolve this complex equation? New Delhi will be hoping that ongoing talks will bear fruit, resulting in a cessation of hostilities and the elimination of a key thorn in its ties with the Western bloc. But, even if a settlement is reached, if it fails of a "fair resolution" that respects Ukraine's independence and territorial integrity, scrutiny of the India-Russia relationship will undoubtedly continue in Western capitals.
