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In October 2022, as Rishi Sunak assumed office as the UK's leader, he was the fifth UK leader to occupy the position over a six-year span.

Triggered in the UK by Britain's EU exit, this represented unprecedented political turmoil. So what term captures what is unfolding in the French Republic, now on its fifth prime minister in 24 months – with three in the last ten months?

The latest prime minister, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on that day, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in exchange for support from Socialist lawmakers as the cost of his administration's continuation.

But it is, in the best case, a short-term solution. The EU’s second-largest economy is trapped in a political permacrisis, the likes of which it has not witnessed for many years – possibly not since the start of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no simple way out.

Governing Without a Majority

Essential context: ever since Macron called an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, the nation has had a divided assembly split into three warring blocs – left, the far right and his own centre-right alliance – none with anything close to a majority.

At the same time, the country faces dual debt and deficit crises: its debt-to-GDP ratio and budget shortfall are now almost twice the EU limit, and hard constitutional deadlines to approve a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are nigh.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In September, the president appointed his trusted associate Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu presented his government team – which proved to be much the same as the old one – he faced fury from both supporters and rivals.

To such an extent that the following day, he resigned. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in modern French history. In a dignified speech, he cited political rigidity, saying “party loyalties” and “certain egos” would make his job all but impossible.

Another twist in the tale: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for two more days in a final attempt to secure multi-party support – a task, to put it gently, not without complications.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs openly criticized the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and leftist LFI declined to engage with Lecornu, promising to vote down all future administrations unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, engaging with all willing listeners. At the end of his 48 hours, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The president’s office announced the president would name a fresh premier two days later.

Macron honored his word – and on Friday appointed … Sébastien Lecornu, again. So recently – with Macron commenting from the wings that the country’s rival political parties were “fuelling division” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Could he survive – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the young prime minister spelled out his budget priorities, giving the Socialist party, who detest Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were waiting for: Macron’s key policy would be suspended until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already supportive, the Socialists said they would not back censorship votes tabled against Lecornu by the extremist factions – meaning the government should survive those votes, due on Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, by no means certain to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS clearly stated that it would be demanding further compromises. “This move,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

Changing Political Culture

The problem is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, similar to the Socialists, the right-leaning parties are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A look at the seat numbers shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and longer-term survival – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the far-right RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR seek his removal.

To succeed, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in 24 months is, like his predecessors, toast.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Although, by an unlikely turn, the dysfunctional assembly musters collective will to approve a budget this year, the prospects for the government beyond that look bleak.

So does an exit exist? Early elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: surveys indicate pretty much every party bar the RN would lose seats, but there would still be no clear majority. A new prime minister would face the same intractable arithmetic.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to step down. After winning the presidential election, his successor would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the following election. But that, too, is uncertain.

Polls suggest the future president will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that French electorate, having elected a far-right president, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

Ultimately, France may not escape its predicament until its politicians acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that decisive majorities are a bygone phenomenon, absolute victory is obsolete, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Many think that transformation will not be feasible under the country’s current constitution. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and even disincentivizes – the emergence of governing coalitions common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”