How Trump Secured a Gaza Breakthrough That Eluded Biden

Side by side - Trump and Netanyahu
Shoulder to shoulder - Donald Trump and Netanyahu

At first, the Israeli air strike on the Hamas delegation in Doha seemed like yet another escalation that drove the prospect of a ceasefire further away.

This strike on September 9 breached the sovereignty of an American ally and threatened widening the hostilities into a broader regional conflict.

Diplomacy appeared to be collapsing.

However, it proved to be a pivotal event that has led in a agreement, declared by President Donald Trump, to free all remaining hostages.

This is a objective that he, and President Joe Biden before him, had pursued for almost 24 months.

This marks just the first step towards a more durable peace, and the specifics of Hamas disarmament, Gaza governance and complete Israeli pullout are still to be worked out.

Yet if this deal holds, it could be Trump's signature achievement of his second term - one that eluded Biden and his diplomatic team.

The president's unique style and key alliances with Israel and the Arab world appear to have contributed in this breakthrough.

But, as with most diplomatic achievements, there were also elements at play beyond the control of either man.

Strong Ties That Biden Never Had

Publicly, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are consistently friendly.

Trump often states that Israel has no greater ally, and Netanyahu has called Trump as the country's "greatest ever ally in the US presidency". Moreover these positive statements have been backed up by deeds.

Throughout his first presidential term, Trump relocated the American diplomatic mission in Israel from its former location to Jerusalem and abandoned a traditional American stance that Israeli settlements in the Palestinian West Bank are against international law, the view under international law.

When the Israeli military began its air strikes against Iran in the summer, Trump ordered US bombers to target the Iran's atomic sites with its most powerful conventional bombs.

Israelis wave their country's and American banners after announcement of the deal
Israelis wave their country's and American banners after news of the deal

Those public demonstrations of backing may have allowed Trump the leeway to apply more pressure on Israel in private. As per sources, Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, browbeat the prime minister in late 2024 into agreeing to a temporary ceasefire in return for the freeing of a number of captives.

When Israel attacked against Syria's military in the summer, even hitting a Christian church, Trump pressured Netanyahu to alter tactics.

The leader displayed a level of determination and insistence on an Israeli prime minister that is rarely seen, says an analyst of the a think tank. "There is no example of an American president directly instructing an Israeli prime minister that they must agree or else."

Joe Biden's relationship with the Israeli administration was always more tenuous.

The Biden team's "close embrace strategy" held that the US had to embrace Israel openly in order to enable it to influence the country's war conduct behind closed doors.

Beneath this was the president's nearly half-century of support for Israel, as well as sharp divisions within his Democratic coalition over the conflict in Gaza. Each move the leader took endangered fracturing his own political backing, whereas his successor's solid Republican base gave him more room to manoeuvre.

Ultimately, domestic politics or individual ties may have had little impact than the simple fact that, during Biden's presidency, the Israeli government was unwilling to make peace.

Eight months into Trump's second term, with Iran weakened, Hezbollah to its northern border greatly diminished and Gaza devastated, every one of its major strategy objectives had been accomplished.

Business History Helped Gain Gulf's Backing

The Israeli missile attack in Doha, which killed a Qatari citizen but no Hamas officials, led the president to deliver an ultimatum to Netanyahu. Hostilities had to stop.

The US leader had allowed the Israeli military a relatively free hand in the territory. He provided US armed support to Israeli operations in the neighboring country. But an strike on Qatar soil was a different matter completely, pushing him towards the Arab position on how best to conclude the conflict.

A number of Trump officials have informed the press that this was a turning point which motivated the leader to exert full force to finalize an agreement.

A urgent regional meeting was convened in Doha after the attack
An emergency regional meeting was convened in Doha after the incident

This US president's close ties with the Gulf states are well documented. He has commercial interests with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The president began each of his administrations with official trips to Saudi Arabia. Recently, he also stopped in Qatar and the UAE capital.

The president's normalization agreements, which established ties between the Jewish state and a number of Arab nations, such as the UAE, was the most significant diplomatic achievement of his initial presidency.

The time devoted in the cities of the Arabian Peninsula earlier this year contributed to shift his perspective, says an expert of the a policy institute. The US president did not visit Israel on this regional tour but visited the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and the state where he heard consistent appeals to put a stop to the war.

Less than a month after that Israeli strike on the city, Trump sat close as Netanyahu personally phoned Qatar to apologise. Subsequently, the prime minister signed off on the president's 20-point peace plan for Gaza - one that also had the backing of key Muslim nations in the region.

Assuming Trump's alliance with his counterpart provided him the room to influence the government to strike a deal, his history with Muslim leaders may have ensured their support, and assisted them convince the group to agree to the deal.

"A key factor that clearly happened was that the US leader developed influence with the Israeli government, and through intermediaries with Hamas," says an analyst of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"This was crucial. The capacity to do this on his timing, and not succumb to the demands of the combatants has been a challenge that lot of previous presidents have struggled with, and Trump appears to do with some success."

The reality that Trump is far better liked in the nation than the prime minister himself was leverage that he used to his advantage, he adds.

Now the Israeli government has committed to freeing over a thousand detainees imprisoned in Israeli prisons and has consented to a limited pullback from the strip.

The group will free all the remaining hostages, living and dead, captured during the initial October 7 Hamas attack, which caused the death of over 1,200 Israelis.

An end to the war, which has led to the devastation of Gaza and the fatalities of more than 67,000 {Palestinians|Pal

Alexis Clark
Alexis Clark

Lena Schmidt is a Berlin-based journalist and political analyst with over a decade of experience covering European affairs.