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Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."