🔗 Share this article

Only 48 hours prior to the New York race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange issued a significant electoral prediction – going beyond the winner citywide, and block by block. The analyst, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of local celebrity this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his extremely precise prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win although missing the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the split between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in audience and the majority of electors leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

What was your election night?

I had to do that since they were adding around 200,000 ballots into the system every few minutes! I felt a little nervous initially: The candidate was ahead the early vote by 12 points, but there were two big batches of votes that came in later and his lead dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world in which election day went kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. However Mamdani added 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his support from the primary.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He assembled the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Additionally he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, young, tenants and residents struggling with costs

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president previously backed the progressive this year. However it’s not that he was gaining white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Effects

A major development of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Turnout was significantly higher than I had expected. I figured we might go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, energized, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s likely to surpass half. He’s at 50.4% but there’s still probably 200K ballots left to report at that time. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I hope he achieves it because afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any borough. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative area. That truly was unexpected. The independent held Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these Republicans on Staten Island who had a strong turnout. I believe there was a lot of tactical voting by the Republicans. They were doing it prior to Trump endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those parts of the boroughs?

I think there was some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. There, instance, the Greek landlords and residents all went for the independent. Thus there existed a little resistance. But overall, mostly the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the election there was coverage on whether the candidate was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he did?

Exist neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the affluent districts like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in the borough, who were strongly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if there were major surprises here, but Mamdani retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from the left come from a few areas in the boroughs. I believe that there will be additional examples – people will come from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

But I believe that each urban center in America can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of progressive influence in America – because youth reside there, people rent and they are places where individuals struggle by the inequalities exist.