Surfaces, Balls and Back-ups – Where the Iconic Series Will Be Decided

Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

England often overthink day-night matches, when data suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|

Alexis Clark
Alexis Clark

Lena Schmidt is a Berlin-based journalist and political analyst with over a decade of experience covering European affairs.